
The acting awards at recent Oscar ceremonies have been largely predictable and somewhat of a precession. This is mainly because there is an overwhelming sense that this year’s ceremony (and the past few) will be more a celebration of timing than performance. Three of the acting categories will be won by someone because the timing is right; i.e. if they don’t give the award now they might not get another chance to.
Obviously this is quite obvious with Heath Ledger, now sadly deceased, but similarly Mickey Rourke will probably hit these actor heights again. If you want to recognise either of these two, it simply has to be now. There will not be another chance. Kate Winslet is in the same vein but although you imagine that she will continue to rack up nominations for as long as she’s in the game, if they don’t hand one to her soon then they run the risk of becoming a laughing stock.
Anyway over to the categories themselves and my thoughts and predictions:
Best Actor
This is very much a two horse race between Mickey Rourke and Sean Penn and one that the former is likely to muscle his way to victory. Out of the two, I would favour Penn for a performance well outside of his comfort zone, in a role that was as challenging to play gay as it was to achieve the kind of gravitas needed to become the USA’s first openly gay government official.
Rourke is fantastic as the down on his luck Wrestler, not knowing where to go now the glory days are gone. This is Mickey himself; this is his life since he went off the rails. It is not a breakout performance, it is something that was very much in his power and although he is terrific, an award for him would be as much for Rourke the person as the character he portrays.
The other nominees are all of high standard although highly unlikely to win. Frank Langella makes a superb Richard Nixon, all of those close-ups on his destroyed face as it all goes south make for fantastic viewing. Out of them all, Brad Pitt remains my least favourite performance, in a film that I actually quite liked. Fortunately, he has as much chance as his wife of winning (more on that in a moment).
Best Actress
Similar to the Actor category, this seems to be very much Kate’s award to lose, with the only competition coming from another highly decorated previous Oscar winner, Meryl Streep. Despite being nominated an astonishing number of times, it should be said that she hasn’t won for a while and it is unlikely that Doubt would be the one to break the habit. It is a pantomime performance that seems too hysterical and daft and I fear that if it hadn’t been Meryl, it wouldn’t have got a nomination.
My favourite performance was Anne Hathaway in Rachel Getting Married, where she plays a drug addict who is on leave from rehab to attend her sisters wedding. As the emotional, mixed up, self-obsessed and difficult to watch Kim she is a revelation. Moments such as her speech at the meal on the eve of the wedding were so real and horrifically cringe-worthy that I almost couldn’t watch. A fantastic performance, albeit one that a nomination will likely be the sum of its glory.
A quick word on Angelina Jolie in the Changeling – if she didn’t win for crying a lot and being generally hysterical in A Mighty Heart, which was a better film, then she ain’t gonna win this time for crying a lot and being generally hysterical. Decent actress though she is, for her to be admitted into the special club of double award winners over someone like Winslet would be a travesty.
So, to Kate. She is nailed on to win for The Reader and that is probably fair considering we don’t want to end up in Peter O’Toole territory (13 nominations without victory for one of the finest actors of the 20th century). Kate does deserve one, as much this year for the fact that she is superb in both this film and Revolutionary Road, and so it shall be.
Best Supporting Actor
Not the best year for Supporting Actor performances, not that it would make much difference anyway as the late Heath Ledger is more certain to win this than he is to be dead on Sunday night. By voting for Ledger’s portrayal of the Joker, the Academy is fulfilling two aims: first, they are correcting the fact that they didn’t give it to him when he was alive and secondly, they are honouring the Dark Knight as a film without having to nominate it in the big category. All of Hollywood is grateful for the Dark Knight’s massive box-office takings last summer, it galvanised the entire industry and helped to get people back into cinemas again. Giving the dead guy the Oscar is the perfect way to hit both marks.
Personally, I flit between Philip Seymour Hoffman and Josh Brolin for this category and would probably argue that Hoffman’s was a stronger performance but that isn’t really saying much new. He is always that good (similar to Meryl Streep in that fashion) and ultimately, like Streep, Doubt isn’t good enough a film to take this home. So – I’m going for Brolin, although I doubt that he’ll have the last laugh…
Best Supporting Actress
This is my favourite category because it doesn’t seem quite so nailed on. By a long way my pick would be the delightful Penelope Cruz for Vicky Cristina Barcelona, a performance that enlivened the whole movie. Playing the crazed Marie Elena, she brought an overtly comic performance to the film which neatly paradoxes the subtlety of the other characters. Her Spanish screaming, crazed expressions and permanent looks of despair was a little locket of perfection in a joyous and entertaining movie.
Cruz does seem to be winning the battle against Marisa Tomei from The Wrestler, who I originally thought would win when I saw the nominations. The build up hasn’t been especially kind to her though and she’s lost momentum in previous award ceremonies. Her character is perhaps the most important in the Wrestler (even more so Rourke’s lead) to pin everything together and it’s a shame, as in another year she would have been a worthy winner. The two Doubt performances were decent too, although I preferred the virtuous Amy Adams to the single scene dramatics of Viola Davis.
Best Director
This is a bit of a wasteful category really, as it is seldom split from the Best Picture award winner. If Slumdog Millionaire wins the big one, expect it to win Danny Boyle a statuette too. Judged on its merits, I think Slumdog probably is the best-directed film on the shortlist so that isn’t a bad shout.
Best Screenplay
Two of this year’s real under the radar gems are featured in the Original Screenplay categories, with In Bruges and Happy-Go-Lucky fighting it out with Milk, Wall-E and Frozen River for the gong. I would love to see In Bruges win this award, as it was one of my favourite films from the entire year mainly because of the razor sharp writing and fantastic dialogue. I was also happy to see Mike Leigh’s Happy-Go-Lucky nominated, although to win a writing award would be wrong considering the improvised way that he and his cast work. Either way, I imagine Milk is more likely to win it and similarly, with Adapted Screenplay, I suspect Slumdog Millionaire will be victorious although personally I would give it to Frost/Nixon.
Best Animated Feature
Wall-E. Will win, should win. I think there’s a significant argument that this should have been included in the Best Film category also.
My choice of award winners:
Best Actor: Sean Penn - Milk
Best Actress: Anne Hathaway – Rachel Getting Married
Best Supporting Actor: Josh Brolin – Milk
Best Supporting Actress: Penelope Cruz – Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Best Director: Danny Boyle – Slumdog Millionaire
Best Foreign Language Film: Waltz With Bashir (Israel)
Best Animated Feature: Wall E
Obviously this is quite obvious with Heath Ledger, now sadly deceased, but similarly Mickey Rourke will probably hit these actor heights again. If you want to recognise either of these two, it simply has to be now. There will not be another chance. Kate Winslet is in the same vein but although you imagine that she will continue to rack up nominations for as long as she’s in the game, if they don’t hand one to her soon then they run the risk of becoming a laughing stock.
Anyway over to the categories themselves and my thoughts and predictions:
Best Actor
This is very much a two horse race between Mickey Rourke and Sean Penn and one that the former is likely to muscle his way to victory. Out of the two, I would favour Penn for a performance well outside of his comfort zone, in a role that was as challenging to play gay as it was to achieve the kind of gravitas needed to become the USA’s first openly gay government official.
Rourke is fantastic as the down on his luck Wrestler, not knowing where to go now the glory days are gone. This is Mickey himself; this is his life since he went off the rails. It is not a breakout performance, it is something that was very much in his power and although he is terrific, an award for him would be as much for Rourke the person as the character he portrays.
The other nominees are all of high standard although highly unlikely to win. Frank Langella makes a superb Richard Nixon, all of those close-ups on his destroyed face as it all goes south make for fantastic viewing. Out of them all, Brad Pitt remains my least favourite performance, in a film that I actually quite liked. Fortunately, he has as much chance as his wife of winning (more on that in a moment).
Best Actress
Similar to the Actor category, this seems to be very much Kate’s award to lose, with the only competition coming from another highly decorated previous Oscar winner, Meryl Streep. Despite being nominated an astonishing number of times, it should be said that she hasn’t won for a while and it is unlikely that Doubt would be the one to break the habit. It is a pantomime performance that seems too hysterical and daft and I fear that if it hadn’t been Meryl, it wouldn’t have got a nomination.
My favourite performance was Anne Hathaway in Rachel Getting Married, where she plays a drug addict who is on leave from rehab to attend her sisters wedding. As the emotional, mixed up, self-obsessed and difficult to watch Kim she is a revelation. Moments such as her speech at the meal on the eve of the wedding were so real and horrifically cringe-worthy that I almost couldn’t watch. A fantastic performance, albeit one that a nomination will likely be the sum of its glory.
A quick word on Angelina Jolie in the Changeling – if she didn’t win for crying a lot and being generally hysterical in A Mighty Heart, which was a better film, then she ain’t gonna win this time for crying a lot and being generally hysterical. Decent actress though she is, for her to be admitted into the special club of double award winners over someone like Winslet would be a travesty.
So, to Kate. She is nailed on to win for The Reader and that is probably fair considering we don’t want to end up in Peter O’Toole territory (13 nominations without victory for one of the finest actors of the 20th century). Kate does deserve one, as much this year for the fact that she is superb in both this film and Revolutionary Road, and so it shall be.
Best Supporting Actor
Not the best year for Supporting Actor performances, not that it would make much difference anyway as the late Heath Ledger is more certain to win this than he is to be dead on Sunday night. By voting for Ledger’s portrayal of the Joker, the Academy is fulfilling two aims: first, they are correcting the fact that they didn’t give it to him when he was alive and secondly, they are honouring the Dark Knight as a film without having to nominate it in the big category. All of Hollywood is grateful for the Dark Knight’s massive box-office takings last summer, it galvanised the entire industry and helped to get people back into cinemas again. Giving the dead guy the Oscar is the perfect way to hit both marks.
Personally, I flit between Philip Seymour Hoffman and Josh Brolin for this category and would probably argue that Hoffman’s was a stronger performance but that isn’t really saying much new. He is always that good (similar to Meryl Streep in that fashion) and ultimately, like Streep, Doubt isn’t good enough a film to take this home. So – I’m going for Brolin, although I doubt that he’ll have the last laugh…
Best Supporting Actress
This is my favourite category because it doesn’t seem quite so nailed on. By a long way my pick would be the delightful Penelope Cruz for Vicky Cristina Barcelona, a performance that enlivened the whole movie. Playing the crazed Marie Elena, she brought an overtly comic performance to the film which neatly paradoxes the subtlety of the other characters. Her Spanish screaming, crazed expressions and permanent looks of despair was a little locket of perfection in a joyous and entertaining movie.
Cruz does seem to be winning the battle against Marisa Tomei from The Wrestler, who I originally thought would win when I saw the nominations. The build up hasn’t been especially kind to her though and she’s lost momentum in previous award ceremonies. Her character is perhaps the most important in the Wrestler (even more so Rourke’s lead) to pin everything together and it’s a shame, as in another year she would have been a worthy winner. The two Doubt performances were decent too, although I preferred the virtuous Amy Adams to the single scene dramatics of Viola Davis.
Best Director
This is a bit of a wasteful category really, as it is seldom split from the Best Picture award winner. If Slumdog Millionaire wins the big one, expect it to win Danny Boyle a statuette too. Judged on its merits, I think Slumdog probably is the best-directed film on the shortlist so that isn’t a bad shout.
Best Screenplay
Two of this year’s real under the radar gems are featured in the Original Screenplay categories, with In Bruges and Happy-Go-Lucky fighting it out with Milk, Wall-E and Frozen River for the gong. I would love to see In Bruges win this award, as it was one of my favourite films from the entire year mainly because of the razor sharp writing and fantastic dialogue. I was also happy to see Mike Leigh’s Happy-Go-Lucky nominated, although to win a writing award would be wrong considering the improvised way that he and his cast work. Either way, I imagine Milk is more likely to win it and similarly, with Adapted Screenplay, I suspect Slumdog Millionaire will be victorious although personally I would give it to Frost/Nixon.
Best Animated Feature
Wall-E. Will win, should win. I think there’s a significant argument that this should have been included in the Best Film category also.
My choice of award winners:
Best Actor: Sean Penn - Milk
Best Actress: Anne Hathaway – Rachel Getting Married
Best Supporting Actor: Josh Brolin – Milk
Best Supporting Actress: Penelope Cruz – Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Best Director: Danny Boyle – Slumdog Millionaire
Best Foreign Language Film: Waltz With Bashir (Israel)
Best Animated Feature: Wall E
Best Original Screenplay: Martin McDonagh - In Bruges
Best Adapted Screenplay: Peter Morgan - Frost/Nixon
Who I think will win:
Best Actor: Mickey Rourke – The Wrestler
Best Actress: Kate Winslet – The Reader
Best Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger – The Dark Knight
Best Supporting Actress: Penelope Cruz – Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Best Director: Danny Boyle – Slumdog Millionaire
Best Foreign Language Film: Waltz With Bashir (Israel)
Who I think will win:
Best Actor: Mickey Rourke – The Wrestler
Best Actress: Kate Winslet – The Reader
Best Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger – The Dark Knight
Best Supporting Actress: Penelope Cruz – Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Best Director: Danny Boyle – Slumdog Millionaire
Best Foreign Language Film: Waltz With Bashir (Israel)
Best Animated Feature: Wall E
Best Original Screenplay: Dustin Lance Black - Milk
Best Adapted Screenplay: Simon Beaufoy - Slumdog Millionaire

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